ACC - NFL Draft Analysis

This piece digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Atlantic Coast Conference team by focusing on the last 5 NFL Drafts. Unlike previous blogs, this piece is not a reflection on a team's current talent level, but speaks to teams talent level in the past.

The Weighted Average (WA) is calculated as followed.

1st Round = 2.5 points
2nd Round = 2 points
3rd Round = 1.5 points
4th Round = 1 points
5th Round = .75 points
6th Round = .50 points
7th Round = .25 points

The column labeled with (#) is a count of players taken across all rounds.

Overall Draft Picks


The ACC had a total of 34 players selected in the first round over the last 5 seasons including 7 from Florida State University. Overall the ACC had a total of 184 players selected. The Seminoles had the most players selected with 27 Noles drafted. Virginia Tech was second with 24 followed by Miami with 23. Florida State and Miami had a sizable cushion over the rest of the ACC in terms of weighted average.


Matt Ryan

Offensive Draft Picks


The ACC had a total of 13 players selected in the first round over the last 5 seasons including 4 from The University of Virginia. A total of 81 offensive players were drafted. Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson was selected #2 overall in the 2007 Draft to the Detroit Lions.

Defensive Draft Picks


The ACC had a total of 21 players drafted in the first round over the last 5 years lead by 6 from Florida State University. A total of 99 ACC defensive players were drafted. NC State's Mario Williams was selected #1 overall in the 2006 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans.


Mario Williams

Over the last 5 years, the ACC has had more players drafted on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side of the ball, which isn't surprising for a league that is known more for its defense than its offense.

Next week, I will be breaking down the SEC Talent Level.

ACC - Defensive Talent Level Anaylsis

This piece digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Atlantic Coast Conference team by focusing on the defensive side on the ball. The offensive data cane be found in the blog. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.

5.7 = 1.00 point
5.8 = 1.25 points
5.9 = 1.50 points
6.0 = 1.75 points
6.1 = 2.00 points

Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.

The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25% due to a lot of players redshirting. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster, so attrition is factored into the equation in this data, but not factored in here.



Wow. How poor of a job is DC Mickey Andrews and position coaches Chuck Amato, Jody Allen and Odell Haggins doing at FSU? Florida State has a ton of talent, but ranks 11th in Scoring Defense and 12 in Total Defense in the ACC.


LOL - Andrews & Amato

North Carolina and Clemson rank as the two best defenses statistically and both are right at the top of the conference in terms of talent.



It all starts on the defensive line and having talent here is biggest key to defensive sucess in my opinion so it is no surprise that Clemson's unit, which features former 5-Star DEs Ricky Sapp and DeQuan Bowers and former 4-Star DTs Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson ranks toward the top in talent, but unlike FSU their production matches they hype.

North Carolina's defensive line is anchored by former 5-Star DT, Marvin Austin and former 4-Star DT Tydreke Powell and 4-Star DE Robert Quinn who is 2nd in the ACC in sacks behind Georgia Tech's former 4-Star edge rusher Derrick Morgan.



Virginia Tech always has a strong defense under DC Bud Foster and their talent is always underrated by Rivals and Scout who don't scout from Virginia through the Northeast with as fine a tooth comb as the Southeast, Texas and California.


Bud Foster - ACC's Best DC

Miami has a ton of talent a LB thanks to a huge haul in 2008. Miami's LB unit is lead by former 4-Star talent, Sean Spence. A lot of talent on this unit, but it is still mostly SO and rFR.



Clemson's former 4-Star Safety DeAndre McDaniel leads the nation in interceptions followed closely by former 4-Star GT safety Morgan Burnett.

Overall, I think the defensive talent outweights the offensive talent in the Atlantic Coast Confernece. I think it has been this way for a few years now, but I like the fact that the offenses have seen some improvement this year as well.

Coming on Friday will be the "ACC - NFL Draft Analysis" before moving on to the SEC.

ACC - Offensive Talent Analysis

This piece digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Atlantic Coast Conference team by focusing on the offensive side on the ball. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.

5.7 = 1.00 point
5.8 = 1.25 points
5.9 = 1.50 points
6.0 = 1.75 points
6.1 = 2.00 points

Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.

The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25% due to a lot of players redshirting. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster, so attrition is factored into the equation in this data, but not factored in here.



Miami and Clemson have by far the most offensive talent in the ACC with North Carolina is a distance 3rd. The next six teams are all bunched together with pretty much the same amount of talent. Florida State jumped out as a team that didn't have as much talent on the offensive side of the ball as expected. This was primarily due to a lot of attrition. Fisher is definitely getting the most out of his players this year.Boston College, Duke and Wake Forest are at the bottom in terms of ACC talent level.



Quarterback talent is likely the most irrelevant statistic because a team really only needs 1 QB, it doesn't matter if the player is a 5-Star prospect like Tyrod Taylor or a 4-Star player like Jacory Harris or a 3-Star player like Thad Lewis and Christian Ponder or even a 2-Star player like Russell Wilson and Riley Skinner. A legit QB can make an marginally talented offense drastically better while a poor QB can cause the talented offense to sputter (cough, cough TJ Yates).


Christian Ponder

Clemson leads the ACC is QB talent with 3 former Elite 11 prospects on the roster, but I wouldn't put there QB play in the top half of the league thus far.



Offensive line play is the most important factor in making an offense success in my opinion, but is also the most hard to scout, which puts a lot of weight on the offensive line coach to scout and develop the talent that they recruit.

Clemson has the most talent on paper in the ACC, but the play of the OL has been average in comparison to the rest of the ACC. Miami is right there with Clemson in terms of talent, but produces at a higher level as does Virginia Tech.



- Miami has the most talent at the skill positions (RB, WR, TE) lead by running backs Craig Cooper and Javarris James and wide receivers Travis Benjamen, Aldrius Johnson and Leonard Hankerson.

- UNC has a lot of talent at the skill position, but nobody has really develop from the group yet outside of Greg Little.

- Clemson features the most eclectic player in College Football in CJ Spiller and with the blazing fast wide receiver Jacoby Ford.

- VT and GT feature the too best power running backs in the conference Ryan Williams and Jonathan Dwyer respectively.


C.J. Spiller

Potential biases in the data are noted in this blog and would also apply to this piece.

Coming on Wednesday will be a the "ACC - Defensive Talent Analysis" and on Friday the "ACC - NFL Draft Analysis" before moving on to the SEC.

ACC - Talent Level Anaylsis

This is an attempt to quantify the amount of raw talent on each team and determine what teams in the ACC do more with less and what teams in the ACC do less with more. Aquiring talent is only one piece of the puzzle in putting together a championship caliber program. What you do with that talent once it is on campus is another hugely important factor and by looking at what teams start with compared to where teams finish it provide insight on what coaching staffs develop players and put their players in the best position to win.

The data below is the "Team Recruiting Rankings" from 2005 - 2009 from two popular recruiting sites. The classes are then weighted and averaged (WA) to give the upperclassmen (05, 06, 07) more impact than the underclassmen (08, 09) because SR and JR typically have more impact on a team's sucess than SO and FR.





A few biases to consider when looking at the data.

1) Rivals and Scout both focus more heavily on scouting the Southeast compared to the Northeast. Recruits for the NE have a much better chance of falling through the cracks than prospects from the SE. This affects Boston College fairly significantly and Marland, Virginia and Virginia Tech marginally.


2) Schools with larger fanbases have a tendency to to have committed recruits get a "bump" in the rankings. This is balanced to some extent by having data from both Rivals and Scout.
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Observations based on the data

- Miami has amassed a stockpile of talent, but failed to develop it in Shannon's first two seasons. Shannon bringing in Whipple to replace Nix has done wonders to help the Canes play closer to their talent levels.

- Florida State has squandered a ton of talent in the last few years. The Seminoles have talent and under no circumstance should rank 11th and 12th in Scoring Defense and Total Defense. Ultimately the blame lies at the feet of Bobby Bowden who has watch the program slide downhill the last few years.

- Clemson has squandered a lot of talent in recent years losing to teams that they should beat with regularity. The Tigers are trying to turn it around under Dabo Swinney, but some concerns remain on the offensive side of the ball due to retaining a couple coaches that were part of the problem under Bowden.

- Two-time defending ACC Champion, Virginia Tech is simple the best in the ACC at scouting and developing players into their system. Frank Beamer and Bud Foster opitimize what a rock solid coaching staff can accomplish and the Hokies should be a model that other programs like Clemson, UNC and NCSU should set their sight on.


Beamer - Doing More With Less

-Georgia Tech under Paul Johnson is an example of how a great coach coupled with a great system can overcome a talent gap. The triple-option has the Jackets rolling despite recruiting rankings in the bottom half of the conference. Johnson will never recruit lights out on offense, but will have his players in a position to win week in and week out.

- North Carolina is a program with a lot of upside, but Butch Davis has always struck me as a great recruiter and above-average coach. Davis has turned around the program from where it was under Torbush and Bunting, but it remains to be seen if Davis can get the Heels to that next level.

Virginia, Maryland and NCSU are all teams that more or less get
about what they should expect out of their talent level, which is middle of the pack. All three might be looking for a coach that can take them to the next level in the next 2 years. Not sold on O'Brien at State at think his staff is filled with deadwood.

- Both Boston College and Wake Forest rivals Virginia Tech as programs that get the most of their talent. Although Boston College is more talented than their rating reflect in my opinion the Eagles are seemingly in the mix for the Atlantic Division on a yearly basis despite being written off in the preseason. Wake Forest is always listed in the basement of the ACC in terms of recruiting ranking, but won the ACC in 2006 and have put up 3 straight winning seasons.


Grobe - A Perfect Fit

I am going to attempt to break the ACC down into offense and defense in the next couple of days.