Big 12 - Talent Analysis

This raw data is a peek into the amount of raw talent for each teams in the Big 12 Conference. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC, the ACC, and the Big 10.


The data below is the "Enrolled Team Recruiting Rankings" from 2005 - 2009 from Rivals.com and Scout.com. The classes are then weighted and averaged (WA) as followed to give emphasis to the classes with more contributing players.

2005 - .15% - rSR
2006 - .35% - SR and rJR
2007 - .30% - JR and rSO
2008 - .15% - SO and rFR
2009 - .05% - FR




Observations

- The previous conference data has been pretty consistent between Rivals and Scout, but this data varies tremendously.

- Texas and Oklahoma are clearly the top two teams in terms of talent in the Big 12, but the two schools are flip-flopped on Rivals and Scout.

- I agree with the next 3 being Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M as well in terms of talent, but I definitely think the Aggies are a lot closer to 5th than 3rd.

- There is also a huge difference with Kansas who Scout ranks 11th and Rivals ranks 9th.

Overall, I think that Rivals did a much better job ranking the Big 12 than Scout outside of having Oklahoma slightly ahead of Texas.

It is very strange that the rankings vary so significantly between the two sites perhaps one of the sites gives more weight to JUCO players?

Big Ten & Notre Dame - Defensive Analysis

This blog digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Big Ten team plus Notre Dame by focusing on the defensive side on the ball. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC and the ACC. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.

5.7 = 1.00 point
5.8 = 1.25 points
5.9 = 1.50 points
6.0 = 1.75 points
6.1 = 2.00 points

Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.

The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25%. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster, so players that left the team, transferred, left early for the NFL or exhausted their eligibility are not included.



Ohio State has the most talent on the defensive side of the ball and ranks 1st in Total Defense and 2nd in Scoring Defense in the Big Ten and in the Top 10 in the nation in both categories. Defense wins championships so it isn't surprising that Ohio State is heading to the Rose Bowl after last weeks victory over Iowa.

Notre Dame has the second most talent defensively, but is sitting at 6-4 due to a defense that ranks 50th in the nation in Scoring Defense and 83rd in the nation in Total Defense. The lack of results on the defensive side of the ball is the big reason why Charlie Weis seat is scorching in South Bend.

Penn State is 2nd in the Big Ten in terms of talent and ranks 2nd in Total Defense and 1st in Scoring Defense, so it is no surprise that the Nittany Lions are eyeing an at large BCS bid.

Michigan has the 3rd most defensive talent in the Big Ten, but are 9th in both Total and Scoring Defense. The Wolverines have been plagued with attrition, but still rank towards the top of the Big Ten in terms of talent. The talent level certainly isn't as high as normal in Ann Arbor, but it should be enough to put a more competitive product on the field. The defensive production started to drop off under Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez has been unable to right the ship.

Iowa is ranked 3rd in Total Defense and Scoring Defense 4th in the Big Ten in terms of talent on defense. The three best teams in the Big Ten also have the three best defenses in the league, which helps prove that a stout defense is the best way to build a program in the Big Ten.







Above is the offensive talent broken down by position.

Two biases to consider.

1) When comparing the Big 10 to other conferences, prospects in the Midwest are much more likely to fall through the cracks and be underrated compared to the Southeast, Texas and California where Rivals has a much stronger footprint of analysts.

2 I also think that prospects from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana are more likely to fall through the cracks and be underrated compared to prospects from Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which helps Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State to a small degree.

How To Fix Instant Replay

After further review, there is indisputable video evidence that instant replay in college football is broken.



Replay officials have failed to get calls correct on numerous occasions this year. Recent examples from 2009 include:

- TD catch for Maryland against Clemson
- Interception by LSU against Alabama
- TD catch by Indiana against Iowa
- Goal line stop by WVU against Cincinnati
- Lateral by UNC against Miami
- Fumble by Clemson against NC State

Not to mention the fiasco in the Oklahoma versus Oregon game in 2006 where the replay official botched two easy calls in a matter of minutes.



Here are some solutions to help improve replay.

Update Technology - It is hard to believe but fans sitting at home in their la-z-boy may have a better view of crucial calls than replay officials do, because the entire SEC and the majority of BCS teams still have replay booths that are not equipped with high definition feeds.

Allow All The Views - The Big Ten and the SEC only allow the replay officials to view plays that come from the television cameras while a number of extra views that are available from the scoreboard cameras are not used.

Why not give officials all the possible angles?

Add Goal Line Cameras - Add two permanent cameras along each goalines.

Improve Coaches Challenges - Currently, coaches have to call a timeout prior to the next play being run in order to challenge a play, but that requires getting the officials attention prior to the play, which doesn't always happen in-time (ask Tom O'Brien). Just give the coaches a bean-bag to toss on the field in order to challange a play, similar to the NFL policy.

Adopt NFL Policy - The NFL puts the ultimate decision to uphold or overrule a call on the field in the hands of the officials on the field. Despite controversial replay after controversial replay in College Football, when was the last time there was a controversial replay in the NFL?

It makes sense to have the official that actual saw the play live on the field to look at all the angles and decide if the call on the field stands or is overruled instead of putting the decision in the hands of completely separate local replay officials who generally seem to be biased towards the home team.

Replay officials can still review every play and signal the officials if a play needs to be reviewed, but the on-field officials actually make the decision whether or not to overturn the call on the field.

Remove The Word "Indisputable" - Instead of requiring "indisputable video evidence" to overturn a call on the field, base the decision on what option appears to be most likely based on the video evidence.

If an official thinks the evidence supports overruling the call even if the evidence isn't indisputable then that should be enough to overturn the call. Instant replay isn't a murder trial, and officials shouldn't have to be convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt to overturn a ruling on the field.



No system is ever going to be perfect, but with just a few simple changes the NCAA can go along way towards reestablishing faith in the replay system after a handful of questionable calls this year.

Big 10 & Notre Dame - Offensive Talent Analysis

This blog digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Big Ten team plus Notre Dame by focusing on the offensive side on the ball. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC and the ACC. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.

5.7 = 1.00 point
5.8 = 1.25 points
5.9 = 1.50 points
6.0 = 1.75 points
6.1 = 2.00 points

Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.

The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25%. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster, so players that left the team, transferred, left early for the NFL or exhausted their eligibility are not included.



Notre Dame has the most talent on the offensive side of the ball out of any team that I have ranked to date (ACC, Big 10, SEC) and their results although mostly positive have been a mixed bag. The Irish move the ball extremely well ranking 9th in Total Offense, but struggle scoring points ranking 46th in Scoring Offense. Notre Dame passes the ball well ranking 5th in passing offense, but struggle running the football ranking 84th in Rushing Offense.

Michigan ranks behind Notre Dame in terms of offensive talent and despite switching from a pro-style offense to a spread option under Rich Rodriguez the Wolverines rank 1st in Scoring Offense and 5th in Total Offense, which points towards the defense being the problem in Ann Arbor (stating the obvious here).

Ohio State is the opposite of Michigan. There offense although possessing a lot of talent is nothing special ranking 4th in the Big 10 in Scoring Offense and 8th in Total Offense. The Buckeye's defense is its strength and the main reason OSU is headed to the Rose Bowl.

This seems to be the winning formula in the Big 10 as both Penn State and Iowa both have offense that are above-average, but defenses that are very stout.

Wisconsin and Michigan State are both teams that buck that trend and feature offenses that rank in the upper tier of the Big 10 in terms of Scoring Offense and Total Offense despite being in the middle of the pack in terms of talent.





Above is the offensive talent broken down by position. Not a whole lot to take away from this data. In general the Big 10 has more talent along the offensive line than the SEC or ACC, but less talent at the skill positions, which is to be expected considering they footprint of the leagues.

Big 10 & Notre Dame - Talent Analysis

This raw data is a peek into the amount of raw talent for each teams in the Big Ten Conference plus Notre Dame since it is in the same geographic footprint. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC and the ACC.

What a team does with that talent once it is on campus is another hugely important factor and by looking at what a team start with compared to where a team finishes, it provides insight into what coaching staffs develop players and put their players in the best position to win.

The data below is the "Enrolled Team Recruiting Rankings" from 2005 - 2009 from Rivals.com and Scout.com. The classes are then weighted and averaged (WA) as followed to give emphasis to the classes with more contributing players.

2005 - .15% - rSR
2006 - .35% - SR and rJR
2007 - .30% - JR and rSO
2008 - .15% - SO and rFR
2009 - .05% - FR





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Observations For The Raw Data

The Good

Iowa under Kirk Ferentz is sitting at 9-1 and ranked inside the Top 15 in both polls despite having talent ranked 6th by both Rivals and Scout. It will interesting to see how the Iowa finishes the season after losing QB Ricky Stansi to injury and seeing their string of 4th quarter comebacks snapped at the hands of Northwestern.

Northwestern sits at 6-4 (3-3) despite having talent rated 10th by both Rivals and Scout. The schedule hasn't been that demanding but for a school that never lands a class ranked inside the Top 50 the results have been impressive.

The Bad

Michigan under Rich Rodriguez is sitting at 5-5 (1-5) after suffering back-to-back defeats to Illinois and Purdue. The Wolverines have the most talent in The Big Ten according to Rivals and Scout, but the results have be historically bad on the field. UM was also hit hard by attrition during the coaching change, so their rankings are likely inflated, but subsequent articles on the offensive and defensive talent will hit on that point.

The offensive issues are understandable with Michigan switching to the spread option from a pro-style set under Rodriguez, but defensively Michigan should be much better. It started to unravel on that side of the ball under Carr and Rodriguez hasn't been able to right the ship. It does begs the question of if Rodriquez will be back next year or will Michigan pull the pug on this experiment after 2 years?

Notre Dame talent on paper is right up with the best in the country, but the results have been putrid under Charlie Weis. The Irish are currently sitting a 6-3 with defeats at the hands of Michigan, USC and Navy. Neither the offense nor the defense has lived-up to expectations during the Weis era although the offense has been improved this year. Many are speculating that this is Weiss last season in South Bend. At this point, I don't see how Notre Dame could keep Weis, especially with so many better options out there.



Ron Zook has proven to be an excellent recruiter, but the knock on Zook has always been his coaching ability. At Illinois it is more of the same. Ranked 4th in talent by both Rivals and Scout yet sitting at 3-6 with losses to Indiana and Purdue. Zook will likely get another year with the Fighting Illini, but at this point who would expect Zook to suddenly become more than just a great recruiter?

Averaged Rivals100, Scout Top 100 and ESPN 150 Rankings

The Mainboard Top 100 is a Top 100 list comprised of ranking from Rivals, Scout and ESPN averaged together. The Rivals, Scout and ESPN columns list the ranking on the various sites. The average column is a average ranking of the 3 sites.




The Mainboard #1 Prospect
Seantrel Henderson




The Mainboard #29 Prospect
Corey Miller




The Mainboard #69 Prospect
Jake Heaps



Between The Hashmarks will update The Mainboard Top 100 as the season progresses with the next update after the season. Feel free to link to your homeboards.

Notes:
- Phillip Sims is committed to Bama.
- Ashton Dorsey is committed to Texas.

SEC - Defensive Talent Analysis

This piece digs a little deeper into the talent level of each Southeastern Conference team on the defensive side on the ball. The offensive data cane be found in the in the blog. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.

5.7 = 1.00 point
5.8 = 1.25 points
5.9 = 1.50 points
6.0 = 1.75 points
6.1 = 2.00 points

Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.

The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25% due to a lot of players redshirting. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster.



Florida is #1 in the SEC and #2 in the county in Scoring Defense and Total Defense and is clearly the most talented team defensively in the SEC.

Alabama is #2 in the SEC and in the Top 5 in the country in Scoring Defense and Total Defense and is group in the next tier with Georgia and LSU in terms of defensive talent, but it is no surprise that that Tide get the most out of their talent under defensive mastermind, Nick Saban.

The biggest surprise is Georgia, who has a lot of talent on paper, but is 12th and 9th in Scoring Defense and Total Defense respectively. Mark Richt might be forced to make a tough decision this off-season on what to do with DC, Willie Martinez.

It is no surprise that Arkansas is 11th and 12th in Scoring Defense and Total Defense as their talent level ranks just above Vanderbilt and is a area that Bobby Petrino will have to emphasize moving forward in recruiting.



It all starts on the defensive line and having talent here is biggest key to defensive success, so it is no surprise that Florida's unit, which features former 5-Star DE Carlos Dunlap and 4-Star Jermaine Cunningham on the other side and a ton of beef in interior leads the Gator's #1 defense. Former 3-Star and future 1st Round pick, Terrance Cody is a mountin in the middle that anchors the NT position in Bama's 3-4 system and really makes that defense click.


Terrence Cody

LSU is always stacked along the defensive line, which is the main reason their defense is always ranked toward the top in the nation.



The SEC has a plethora of top linebacker, but none are better than the trio of Florida's 5-Star Brandon Spikes, Alabama's 4-Star Rolando McLain and South Carolina's 3-Star Eric Norwood.



Tennessee's former 5-Star Eric Berry is the top defense back in the nation while Bama's former 4-Star Mark Barron leads the SEC in interceptions and is in the top five in passes defended.


Eric Berry

Help spread the word by linking this article on Rivals, Scout and ESPN team sites.

SEC - Offensive Talent Analysis

This piece digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Southeastern Conference team by focusing on the offensive side on the ball. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.

5.7 = 1.00 point
5.8 = 1.25 points
5.9 = 1.50 points
6.0 = 1.75 points
6.1 = 2.00 points

Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.

The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25%. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster plus Moody, Mallett and Snead, so attrition is factored into the equation in this data.



LSU, Florida and Georgia are bunched at the top in terms of talent, but Georgia and LSU are both underachieving on the offensive side of the ball ranked 11th and 12th in Total Offense in the SEC.

Arkansas under offensive mastermind Bobby Petrino is 8th in the SEC in terms of talent, but 2nd in the SEC behind Florida in both Scoring Offense and Total Offense. The Hawgs are getting the most out of their talent offensively.

Auburn under OC Gus Malzahn has totally transformed the Tigers taking a team that drastically underachieved offensively and turning them into a team that overachieves.

I think a lot of Florida and Arkansas success and LSU and Georgia's struggles can be explained by looking at Quarterback Talent.



Florida and Arkansas are lead by former 5-Star QBs Tim Tebow and Ryan Mallett while UGA and LSU struggle at the QB position hence struggle with consistency offensively.


Tim Tebow

A legit QB can make an marginally talented offense drastically better while a poor QB can cause a talented offense to sputter.




Offensive line play is a hugely important factor in making an offense successful, but OL is also the hardest position to scout, which puts a lot of weight on the offensive line coach to find and develop the players that they recruit.

Georgia has the most talent on paper in the SEC, but the play of UGA's OL has been average in comparison to the rest of the SEC partly due to a rash of injuries. Alabama and Florida are right there with Georgia in terms of talent, but produces at a higher level.

South Carolina is a team that has a solid amount of talent along the OL, but has put out consistently poor lines. USC fired OL John Hunt and hired Eric Wolford prior to the 2009 season and the results have improved, but Wolford still has a long way to go.



Running back - Alabama's 4-Star Mark Ingram leads the SEC in rushing followed closely by Mississippi State's 4-Star Anthony Dixon and Auburn's 4-Star Ben Tate.


Mark Ingram

Wide Receiver - Georgia's dynamite 5-Star AJ Green is one of the best recievers in the entire country and leads the SEC in receiving. LSU's 5-Star Terrance Toliver is in the Top 5 in the SEC in both receptions and yards per game.

Tight End - Florida's 4-Star Aaron Hernandez is Florida key weapon in the passing game and leads the SEC in receptions and yards per game by a TE.

Upcoming Articles

Friday - SEC Defensive Talent Anaylsis

SEC - Talent Analysis Updated

Here is an updated talent analyis based on Rivals "enrolled" rankings, which will eliminate any players that signed an LOI, but never enrolled. I also did two seperate weighted averages (WA) with one putting more emphasis on 2005 and 2006 and the other putting more emphasis on 2008 and 2009.

The data below is the "Team Recruiting Rankings" from 2005 - 2009 from Rivals.com. The classes are then weighted and averaged (WA) as followed.

2005 - .15% - rSR
2006 - .35% - SR and rJR
2007 - .30% - JR and rSO
2008 - .15% - SO and rFR
2009 - .05% - FR

This WA gives more value to upperclassmen.



This weighted average gives more value to underclassmen.

2005 - .10% - rSR
2006 - .30% - SR and rJR
2007 - .30% - JR and rSO
2008 - .20% - SO and rFR
2009 - .10% - FR



Observations

There is very little difference between the WA with more weight given to upperclassmen and when more weight is given to underclassment. Alabama get a little stronger while Tennessee gets a little weaker.

The differences between the "enrolled" rankings and the "signed" rankings is a little more noticable. South Carolina jumps Tennessee from 7th into 6th and Arkansas jumps Ole Miss from 9th into 8th. The top five remained unchanged.

SEC - Talent Analysis

This is an attempt to quantify the amount of raw talent on paper for each teams in the Southeastern Conference. What a team does with that talent once it is on campus is another hugely important factor and by looking at what teams start with compared to where teams finish it provide insight on what coaching staffs develop players and put their players in the best position to win.

The data below is the "Team Recruiting Rankings" from 2005 - 2009 from Rivals.com and Scout.com. The classes are then weighted and averaged (WA) as followed.

2005 - .15% - rSR
2006 - .35% - SR and rJR
2007 - .30% - JR and rSO
2008 - .15% - SO and rFR
2009 - .05% - FR





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Observations From The Data

Florida is 1st in the SEC in both Rivals and Scout rankings and is currently ranked #1 in both polls. The Gators, lead by Heisman Trophy winner and former 5-Star QB Tim Tebow, are looking for their 3rd National Championship in 4 years under Urban Meyer.


Urban Meyer

Alabama is 6th and 4th in the SEC in Scout and Rivals rankings respectively, but is currently sitting in 2nd in both polls. Lead by one of the best coaches in the nation in Nick Saban the Crimson Tide are looking to win the SEC West for the 2nd consecutive year. Alabama also will be climbing up subsequent rankings with back-to-back #1 overall classes according to Rivals. Alabama is loaded, but a lot of their talent is young.

Georgia is 2nd in the SEC in terms of on paper talent according to both Rivals and Scout, but is currently 4-4 on the year. The Dawgs defense under Willie Martinez has been poor and the offense outside of 5-Star WR AJ Green has been pretty spotty. The Dawgs have constantly recruited towards the top of the SEC, but have underachieved recently under Mark Richt..

LSU is 3rd in the SEC in terms of talent according to both Rivals and Scout and is sitting inside the Top 10 heading into a clash with Alabama. The QB position has plagued the Tigers since their 2007 National Championship. It will be interesting to see if LSU takes a step-back or a step-up in the next few years under Les Miles.


Nick Saban

Upcoming Articles

Wednesday - SEC OFfensive Talent Anaylsis
Friday - SEC Defensive Talent Anaylsis

ACC - NFL Draft Analysis

This piece digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Atlantic Coast Conference team by focusing on the last 5 NFL Drafts. Unlike previous blogs, this piece is not a reflection on a team's current talent level, but speaks to teams talent level in the past.

The Weighted Average (WA) is calculated as followed.

1st Round = 2.5 points
2nd Round = 2 points
3rd Round = 1.5 points
4th Round = 1 points
5th Round = .75 points
6th Round = .50 points
7th Round = .25 points

The column labeled with (#) is a count of players taken across all rounds.

Overall Draft Picks


The ACC had a total of 34 players selected in the first round over the last 5 seasons including 7 from Florida State University. Overall the ACC had a total of 184 players selected. The Seminoles had the most players selected with 27 Noles drafted. Virginia Tech was second with 24 followed by Miami with 23. Florida State and Miami had a sizable cushion over the rest of the ACC in terms of weighted average.


Matt Ryan

Offensive Draft Picks


The ACC had a total of 13 players selected in the first round over the last 5 seasons including 4 from The University of Virginia. A total of 81 offensive players were drafted. Georgia Tech's Calvin Johnson was selected #2 overall in the 2007 Draft to the Detroit Lions.

Defensive Draft Picks


The ACC had a total of 21 players drafted in the first round over the last 5 years lead by 6 from Florida State University. A total of 99 ACC defensive players were drafted. NC State's Mario Williams was selected #1 overall in the 2006 NFL Draft by the Houston Texans.


Mario Williams

Over the last 5 years, the ACC has had more players drafted on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive side of the ball, which isn't surprising for a league that is known more for its defense than its offense.

Next week, I will be breaking down the SEC Talent Level.

ACC - Defensive Talent Level Anaylsis

This piece digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Atlantic Coast Conference team by focusing on the defensive side on the ball. The offensive data cane be found in the blog. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.

5.7 = 1.00 point
5.8 = 1.25 points
5.9 = 1.50 points
6.0 = 1.75 points
6.1 = 2.00 points

Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.

The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25% due to a lot of players redshirting. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster, so attrition is factored into the equation in this data, but not factored in here.



Wow. How poor of a job is DC Mickey Andrews and position coaches Chuck Amato, Jody Allen and Odell Haggins doing at FSU? Florida State has a ton of talent, but ranks 11th in Scoring Defense and 12 in Total Defense in the ACC.


LOL - Andrews & Amato

North Carolina and Clemson rank as the two best defenses statistically and both are right at the top of the conference in terms of talent.



It all starts on the defensive line and having talent here is biggest key to defensive sucess in my opinion so it is no surprise that Clemson's unit, which features former 5-Star DEs Ricky Sapp and DeQuan Bowers and former 4-Star DTs Jarvis Jenkins and Brandon Thompson ranks toward the top in talent, but unlike FSU their production matches they hype.

North Carolina's defensive line is anchored by former 5-Star DT, Marvin Austin and former 4-Star DT Tydreke Powell and 4-Star DE Robert Quinn who is 2nd in the ACC in sacks behind Georgia Tech's former 4-Star edge rusher Derrick Morgan.



Virginia Tech always has a strong defense under DC Bud Foster and their talent is always underrated by Rivals and Scout who don't scout from Virginia through the Northeast with as fine a tooth comb as the Southeast, Texas and California.


Bud Foster - ACC's Best DC

Miami has a ton of talent a LB thanks to a huge haul in 2008. Miami's LB unit is lead by former 4-Star talent, Sean Spence. A lot of talent on this unit, but it is still mostly SO and rFR.



Clemson's former 4-Star Safety DeAndre McDaniel leads the nation in interceptions followed closely by former 4-Star GT safety Morgan Burnett.

Overall, I think the defensive talent outweights the offensive talent in the Atlantic Coast Confernece. I think it has been this way for a few years now, but I like the fact that the offenses have seen some improvement this year as well.

Coming on Friday will be the "ACC - NFL Draft Analysis" before moving on to the SEC.