November 19, 2009

Big Ten & Notre Dame - Defensive Analysis

This blog digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Big Ten team plus Notre Dame by focusing on the defensive side on the ball. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC and the ACC. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.

5.7 = 1.00 point
5.8 = 1.25 points
5.9 = 1.50 points
6.0 = 1.75 points
6.1 = 2.00 points

Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.

The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25%. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster, so players that left the team, transferred, left early for the NFL or exhausted their eligibility are not included.



Ohio State has the most talent on the defensive side of the ball and ranks 1st in Total Defense and 2nd in Scoring Defense in the Big Ten and in the Top 10 in the nation in both categories. Defense wins championships so it isn't surprising that Ohio State is heading to the Rose Bowl after last weeks victory over Iowa.

Notre Dame has the second most talent defensively, but is sitting at 6-4 due to a defense that ranks 50th in the nation in Scoring Defense and 83rd in the nation in Total Defense. The lack of results on the defensive side of the ball is the big reason why Charlie Weis seat is scorching in South Bend.

Penn State is 2nd in the Big Ten in terms of talent and ranks 2nd in Total Defense and 1st in Scoring Defense, so it is no surprise that the Nittany Lions are eyeing an at large BCS bid.

Michigan has the 3rd most defensive talent in the Big Ten, but are 9th in both Total and Scoring Defense. The Wolverines have been plagued with attrition, but still rank towards the top of the Big Ten in terms of talent. The talent level certainly isn't as high as normal in Ann Arbor, but it should be enough to put a more competitive product on the field. The defensive production started to drop off under Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez has been unable to right the ship.

Iowa is ranked 3rd in Total Defense and Scoring Defense 4th in the Big Ten in terms of talent on defense. The three best teams in the Big Ten also have the three best defenses in the league, which helps prove that a stout defense is the best way to build a program in the Big Ten.







Above is the offensive talent broken down by position.

Two biases to consider.

1) When comparing the Big 10 to other conferences, prospects in the Midwest are much more likely to fall through the cracks and be underrated compared to the Southeast, Texas and California where Rivals has a much stronger footprint of analysts.

2 I also think that prospects from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana are more likely to fall through the cracks and be underrated compared to prospects from Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which helps Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State to a small degree.

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