November 12, 2009

Big 10 & Notre Dame - Talent Analysis

This raw data is a peek into the amount of raw talent for each teams in the Big Ten Conference plus Notre Dame since it is in the same geographic footprint. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC and the ACC.

What a team does with that talent once it is on campus is another hugely important factor and by looking at what a team start with compared to where a team finishes, it provides insight into what coaching staffs develop players and put their players in the best position to win.

The data below is the "Enrolled Team Recruiting Rankings" from 2005 - 2009 from Rivals.com and Scout.com. The classes are then weighted and averaged (WA) as followed to give emphasis to the classes with more contributing players.

2005 - .15% - rSR
2006 - .35% - SR and rJR
2007 - .30% - JR and rSO
2008 - .15% - SO and rFR
2009 - .05% - FR





-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Observations For The Raw Data

The Good

Iowa under Kirk Ferentz is sitting at 9-1 and ranked inside the Top 15 in both polls despite having talent ranked 6th by both Rivals and Scout. It will interesting to see how the Iowa finishes the season after losing QB Ricky Stansi to injury and seeing their string of 4th quarter comebacks snapped at the hands of Northwestern.

Northwestern sits at 6-4 (3-3) despite having talent rated 10th by both Rivals and Scout. The schedule hasn't been that demanding but for a school that never lands a class ranked inside the Top 50 the results have been impressive.

The Bad

Michigan under Rich Rodriguez is sitting at 5-5 (1-5) after suffering back-to-back defeats to Illinois and Purdue. The Wolverines have the most talent in The Big Ten according to Rivals and Scout, but the results have be historically bad on the field. UM was also hit hard by attrition during the coaching change, so their rankings are likely inflated, but subsequent articles on the offensive and defensive talent will hit on that point.

The offensive issues are understandable with Michigan switching to the spread option from a pro-style set under Rodriguez, but defensively Michigan should be much better. It started to unravel on that side of the ball under Carr and Rodriguez hasn't been able to right the ship. It does begs the question of if Rodriquez will be back next year or will Michigan pull the pug on this experiment after 2 years?

Notre Dame talent on paper is right up with the best in the country, but the results have been putrid under Charlie Weis. The Irish are currently sitting a 6-3 with defeats at the hands of Michigan, USC and Navy. Neither the offense nor the defense has lived-up to expectations during the Weis era although the offense has been improved this year. Many are speculating that this is Weiss last season in South Bend. At this point, I don't see how Notre Dame could keep Weis, especially with so many better options out there.



Ron Zook has proven to be an excellent recruiter, but the knock on Zook has always been his coaching ability. At Illinois it is more of the same. Ranked 4th in talent by both Rivals and Scout yet sitting at 3-6 with losses to Indiana and Purdue. Zook will likely get another year with the Fighting Illini, but at this point who would expect Zook to suddenly become more than just a great recruiter?

No comments:

Post a Comment