This raw data is a peek into the amount of raw talent for each teams in the Big 12 Conference. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC, the ACC, and the Big 10.
The data below is the "Enrolled Team Recruiting Rankings" from 2005 - 2009 from Rivals.com and Scout.com. The classes are then weighted and averaged (WA) as followed to give emphasis to the classes with more contributing players.
2005 - .15% - rSR 2006 - .35% - SR and rJR 2007 - .30% - JR and rSO 2008 - .15% - SO and rFR 2009 - .05% - FR
Observations
- The previous conference data has been pretty consistent between Rivals and Scout, but this data varies tremendously.
- Texas and Oklahoma are clearly the top two teams in terms of talent in the Big 12, but the two schools are flip-flopped on Rivals and Scout.
- I agree with the next 3 being Nebraska, Oklahoma State and Texas A&M as well in terms of talent, but I definitely think the Aggies are a lot closer to 5th than 3rd.
- There is also a huge difference with Kansas who Scout ranks 11th and Rivals ranks 9th.
Overall, I think that Rivals did a much better job ranking the Big 12 than Scout outside of having Oklahoma slightly ahead of Texas.
It is very strange that the rankings vary so significantly between the two sites perhaps one of the sites gives more weight to JUCO players?
This blog digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Big Ten team plus Notre Dame by focusing on the defensive side on the ball. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC and the ACC. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.
Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.
The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25%. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster, so players that left the team, transferred, left early for the NFL or exhausted their eligibility are not included.
Ohio State has the most talent on the defensive side of the ball and ranks 1st in Total Defense and 2nd in Scoring Defense in the Big Ten and in the Top 10 in the nation in both categories. Defense wins championships so it isn't surprising that Ohio State is heading to the Rose Bowl after last weeks victory over Iowa.
Notre Dame has the second most talent defensively, but is sitting at 6-4 due to a defense that ranks 50th in the nation in Scoring Defense and 83rd in the nation in Total Defense. The lack of results on the defensive side of the ball is the big reason why Charlie Weis seat is scorching in South Bend.
Penn State is 2nd in the Big Ten in terms of talent and ranks 2nd in Total Defense and 1st in Scoring Defense, so it is no surprise that the Nittany Lions are eyeing an at large BCS bid.
Michigan has the 3rd most defensive talent in the Big Ten, but are 9th in both Total and Scoring Defense. The Wolverines have been plagued with attrition, but still rank towards the top of the Big Ten in terms of talent. The talent level certainly isn't as high as normal in Ann Arbor, but it should be enough to put a more competitive product on the field. The defensive production started to drop off under Lloyd Carr and Rich Rodriguez has been unable to right the ship.
Iowa is ranked 3rd in Total Defense and Scoring Defense 4th in the Big Ten in terms of talent on defense. The three best teams in the Big Ten also have the three best defenses in the league, which helps prove that a stout defense is the best way to build a program in the Big Ten.
Above is the offensive talent broken down by position.
Two biases to consider.
1) When comparing the Big 10 to other conferences, prospects in the Midwest are much more likely to fall through the cracks and be underrated compared to the Southeast, Texas and California where Rivals has a much stronger footprint of analysts.
2 I also think that prospects from Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois and Indiana are more likely to fall through the cracks and be underrated compared to prospects from Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which helps Michigan, Michigan State, Ohio State and Penn State to a small degree.
After further review, there is indisputable video evidence that instant replay in college football is broken.
Replay officials have failed to get calls correct on numerous occasions this year. Recent examples from 2009 include:
- TD catch for Maryland against Clemson - Interception by LSU against Alabama - TD catch by Indiana against Iowa - Goal line stop by WVU against Cincinnati - Lateral by UNC against Miami - Fumble by Clemson against NC State
Not to mention the fiasco in the Oklahoma versus Oregon game in 2006 where the replay official botched two easy calls in a matter of minutes.
Here are some solutions to help improve replay.
Update Technology - It is hard to believe but fans sitting at home in their la-z-boy may have a better view of crucial calls than replay officials do, because the entire SEC and the majority of BCS teams still have replay booths that are not equipped with high definition feeds.
Allow All The Views - The Big Ten and the SEC only allow the replay officials to view plays that come from the television cameras while a number of extra views that are available from the scoreboard cameras are not used.
Why not give officials all the possible angles?
Add Goal Line Cameras - Add two permanent cameras along each goalines.
Improve Coaches Challenges - Currently, coaches have to call a timeout prior to the next play being run in order to challenge a play, but that requires getting the officials attention prior to the play, which doesn't always happen in-time (ask Tom O'Brien). Just give the coaches a bean-bag to toss on the field in order to challange a play, similar to the NFL policy.
Adopt NFL Policy - The NFL puts the ultimate decision to uphold or overrule a call on the field in the hands of the officials on the field. Despite controversial replay after controversial replay in College Football, when was the last time there was a controversial replay in the NFL?
It makes sense to have the official that actual saw the play live on the field to look at all the angles and decide if the call on the field stands or is overruled instead of putting the decision in the hands of completely separate local replay officials who generally seem to be biased towards the home team.
Replay officials can still review every play and signal the officials if a play needs to be reviewed, but the on-field officials actually make the decision whether or not to overturn the call on the field.
Remove The Word "Indisputable" - Instead of requiring "indisputable video evidence" to overturn a call on the field, base the decision on what option appears to be most likely based on the video evidence.
If an official thinks the evidence supports overruling the call even if the evidence isn't indisputable then that should be enough to overturn the call. Instant replay isn't a murder trial, and officials shouldn't have to be convinced beyond a shadow of a doubt to overturn a ruling on the field.
No system is ever going to be perfect, but with just a few simple changes the NCAA can go along way towards reestablishing faith in the replay system after a handful of questionable calls this year.
This blog digs a little deeper into the talent level on each Big Ten team plus Notre Dame by focusing on the offensive side on the ball. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC and the ACC. The raw data comes from Rival.com prospect ratings and is calculated as followed.
Players under 5.7 were not calculated into the raw data as a way to limit complexity.
The 2005, 2006, 2007 classes are weighted at 100% while the 2008 class is weighted at 75% and 2009 is weighted at 25%. Important to note is that this data only includes current players on the roster, so players that left the team, transferred, left early for the NFL or exhausted their eligibility are not included.
Notre Dame has the most talent on the offensive side of the ball out of any team that I have ranked to date (ACC, Big 10, SEC) and their results although mostly positive have been a mixed bag. The Irish move the ball extremely well ranking 9th in Total Offense, but struggle scoring points ranking 46th in Scoring Offense. Notre Dame passes the ball well ranking 5th in passing offense, but struggle running the football ranking 84th in Rushing Offense.
Michigan ranks behind Notre Dame in terms of offensive talent and despite switching from a pro-style offense to a spread option under Rich Rodriguez the Wolverines rank 1st in Scoring Offense and 5th in Total Offense, which points towards the defense being the problem in Ann Arbor (stating the obvious here).
Ohio State is the opposite of Michigan. There offense although possessing a lot of talent is nothing special ranking 4th in the Big 10 in Scoring Offense and 8th in Total Offense. The Buckeye's defense is its strength and the main reason OSU is headed to the Rose Bowl.
This seems to be the winning formula in the Big 10 as both Penn State and Iowa both have offense that are above-average, but defenses that are very stout.
Wisconsin and Michigan State are both teams that buck that trend and feature offenses that rank in the upper tier of the Big 10 in terms of Scoring Offense and Total Offense despite being in the middle of the pack in terms of talent.
Above is the offensive talent broken down by position. Not a whole lot to take away from this data. In general the Big 10 has more talent along the offensive line than the SEC or ACC, but less talent at the skill positions, which is to be expected considering they footprint of the leagues.
This raw data is a peek into the amount of raw talent for each teams in the Big Ten Conference plus Notre Dame since it is in the same geographic footprint. This analysis is similar to our previous articles on the SEC and the ACC.
What a team does with that talent once it is on campus is another hugely important factor and by looking at what a team start with compared to where a team finishes, it provides insight into what coaching staffs develop players and put their players in the best position to win.
The data below is the "Enrolled Team Recruiting Rankings" from 2005 - 2009 from Rivals.com and Scout.com. The classes are then weighted and averaged (WA) as followed to give emphasis to the classes with more contributing players.
2005 - .15% - rSR 2006 - .35% - SR and rJR 2007 - .30% - JR and rSO 2008 - .15% - SO and rFR 2009 - .05% - FR
Iowa under Kirk Ferentz is sitting at 9-1 and ranked inside the Top 15 in both polls despite having talent ranked 6th by both Rivals and Scout. It will interesting to see how the Iowa finishes the season after losing QB Ricky Stansi to injury and seeing their string of 4th quarter comebacks snapped at the hands of Northwestern.
Northwestern sits at 6-4 (3-3) despite having talent rated 10th by both Rivals and Scout. The schedule hasn't been that demanding but for a school that never lands a class ranked inside the Top 50 the results have been impressive.
The Bad
Michigan under Rich Rodriguez is sitting at 5-5 (1-5) after suffering back-to-back defeats to Illinois and Purdue. The Wolverines have the most talent in The Big Ten according to Rivals and Scout, but the results have be historically bad on the field. UM was also hit hard by attrition during the coaching change, so their rankings are likely inflated, but subsequent articles on the offensive and defensive talent will hit on that point.
The offensive issues are understandable with Michigan switching to the spread option from a pro-style set under Rodriguez, but defensively Michigan should be much better. It started to unravel on that side of the ball under Carr and Rodriguez hasn't been able to right the ship. It does begs the question of if Rodriquez will be back next year or will Michigan pull the pug on this experiment after 2 years?
Notre Dame talent on paper is right up with the best in the country, but the results have been putrid under Charlie Weis. The Irish are currently sitting a 6-3 with defeats at the hands of Michigan, USC and Navy. Neither the offense nor the defense has lived-up to expectations during the Weis era although the offense has been improved this year. Many are speculating that this is Weiss last season in South Bend. At this point, I don't see how Notre Dame could keep Weis, especially with so many better options out there.
Ron Zook has proven to be an excellent recruiter, but the knock on Zook has always been his coaching ability. At Illinois it is more of the same. Ranked 4th in talent by both Rivals and Scout yet sitting at 3-6 with losses to Indiana and Purdue. Zook will likely get another year with the Fighting Illini, but at this point who would expect Zook to suddenly become more than just a great recruiter?
